Avoid Mice Fever (EHF)

In the northeastern Jilin Province the discomforting Mice Fever has been spreading rapidly. The Star Online reports that the number of fatalities may already have surpassed last year's number of 1,840 cases. Experts suggest, according to Sina.com that the increase may be linked to lower vaccination rates this year. Sadly, farmers in the poorest areas often cannot afford the vaccination, which is fatal in the areas where the Fever has hit the hardest. In one of the more seriously hit areas, Jilin's Shuangyang district, national-level monitoring of the disease has been implemented. The bottom line: stay away from Mice, their droppings, or any culinary delicacy (no matter what they tell you in Jilin) that involves Mickey's relatives.

Now, would this disease ever have the potential to reach epidemic status (like SARS)? You probably won't get that news from any Da Lu (Mainland) news sources if this ever were to become the case.

Links:
http://english.sina.com/china/1/2005/0927/47554.html
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/9/28/asia/12162487&sec=asia

End of China/Taiwan's "Dollar Diplomacy"...maybe

$$vs$$

Remember the China/Taiwan "dollar Diplomacy" and these were donating vast amounts in order to win support in favor of each respective" country." This may soon be over Chen Shui-bian has called for this to stop and in his own words "Taiwan must never engage in a spending competition with China." You really think he can and will stop this? But then again, its also very exotic to report on China/Taiwan's surge in foreign aid to countries such as Grenada, Nauru, and Dominica.

What does this mean for the Taiwan-China rivalry? Would it mean more spending on other factors of rivalty (such as the military) or could it reduce the tensions between the two Chinas? You never know - but the sabrerattling between the rivals has lasted for 50 years without any major conflicts- why wouldn't this carry on as usual despite the end of the expensive "dollar diplomacy". Besides, the Taiwanese New Dollar has just dropped to new lows.

Asia Pulse Article Link

Bush Should Visit North Korea: Kim Jong-il

According to a Yonhap news report, Kim Jong-il is apparently seeking a visit by Bush or another high-level official to visit his beloved DPRK. Bush Sr. and Condi would also make the VIP list.



What a situation it could turn out to be - Kim and Bush shaking hands. The comedy channels would have enough material for years - you would almost think Jon Stewart and Jay Leno would buy one of Bush's oil wells for such an event.

And what about translators? Would they 'really' translate when Bush and Kim meet?
-------------------
Bush: I'm very happy to be here today! (Kim's translator): I envy your strength, Dear Leader.
Kim: Welcome to heaven on earth. (Bush's translator): Isn't it almost as nice as Texas?
Bush: Do you remember my comment about me loathing you? (Kim's translator): Let's be friends.
Kim: Your Vice-President Cheney called me a 'bloodthirsty beast'. But I still think you're a half-baked man (Bush's translator): Mr. Kim loves Dick Cheney's blood sausages, and even more, your baked bread.
--------------------
Let's hope Messrs. Stewart and Leno do it a bit better, if Bush and Kim do end up meeting...

Want to learn more about East Asia?

Copyright-Univ. of Washington

The East Asia Center at the University of Washington has an impressive list of Links to useful sites related to any aspects of East Asia ranging from General Information to Cultura, History, Languages, and many others.

LINK

Let's hope they think as highly of this blog :D

Cheers

Higher Number of Mental Disorders in the South Korean Military; Korean Times

You may have heard rumors about the condition for soldiers in the South Korean military. Rumors speak of a hard-line marine corp, poor facilities--archaic to our time, and a tough conscription service that takes broad sweeps by forcing all young men to join the armed forces, save those that have physical- or mental health issues. While it may sound like a fair system--as you don't want unstable individuals in control of lethal weapons--you may be surprised.

The Korean Times reports of new information released by South Korea's Defense Ministry that speak of an increasing number of hospitalizations due to mental disease in Korea's armed forces. This does not sound swell now, does it?

Politicians and experts speak of a conscription service that signs up soldiers without serious consideration to their medical and mental history. Others speak of how the poor conditions in the military is not exactly "helpful" to preventing people developing mental conditions. It thus seems there's some credit to the Marine story and how it may be "driving people crazy."

It sounds like South Korea has another area in which it needs to shape up its human rights 'work-out'--a leftover from the 80-90s. It could also, however, demonstrate a global trend towards pacifism and the falling support for keeping such large military establishments active. The prosperity in the North East Asian region has developed without any major military conflicts since the Korean War, and perhaps people are starting to see the direct relationship between peace and prosperity.

Or maybe not. People may have developed mental disorders in the armed forces since the invension of the bow, arrow, and other sharp objects. What do I know??? I am not an MD in Psychiatry. What is important, however, is what you think?

Alas: North Korea wants a civilian nuclear program earlier than expected...

Sigh.... And we all thought it was going to go so smoooooothly....

BBC News Article

Is this is? Are we back to Square 1?

The Joint Statement: A scorecard

After much media ado and happiness regarding the first 6-party accomplishment (knock on wood), here is my numeric take on the joint statement issued on Monday on North Korea's nuclear program

Section 1
So they all agree on removing nuclear weapons from the Peninsula. North Korea has signed it. Good for all of us. +1
The US has agreed it won't attack the DRPT. Super. +1
The return to the 1992 joint declaration. DejaVu!. +1
South Korea will not build, receive nor store any nukes. Hmmmm. Ok. That's also great. +1
North Korea's right to a peaceful nuclear program. I'm pro-windmill, and not so happy about nuclear energy. That's a -1.
Light-water reactor issue. That might come back and haunt us all. Not great either. -1
Sub-total: +2. Not bad, Messrs. Kim, Hill, Wu, et al.

Section 2
The six parties have agreed to abide by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and recognize the norms of International Relations. With US attacking Iraq, we are currently lacking international norms and ethics: +-0

DRPK-US mutual respect for each other's sovereignty, peaceful co-existence, and steps to be taken to normalize their relations. Engagement is key. +1

DRPK-Japan took steps to normalize their relations. Wonderful. Perhaps North Korea will be more honest about the abduction issue and help prevent an anti-North Korean backlash under future-PM Abe. +1

Although this is a very vague category, we're still up with +3. That's stupendous.

Section 3
The six parties have agreed to promote economic cooperation in energy, trade, and investment, both bi- and multilaterally. Yahoo. Have you heard of Friedman's Dell theory of conflict resolution? +1

The five other nations will provide the DPRK with energy assistance and South Korea will stand by its commitment of providing 2 million KW of electric power. Let's hope this happens without any corruption scandals. +1
Sub(way) total: +2

Section 4
Commitment to long-lasting peace in northeast Asia. Sweet-honey-rosy stuff, but looks great on your CV. +1
A separate forum to pursue this. Why don't they use ARF, or Asean+3, or the like? But perhaps this could be a forum that actually works! Wow. That would be great. +2
Sub: +3

Section 5
Step-by-step follow through of commitments. This should help prevent a "you go first" situation. Nice one. +1
Do we need a sub? +1

Section 6
Another 6-party meeting in November. Let's hope this gets even BETTER! +1
Sub: +1

Deductions (them yella' cards):
For all the stubbornness (on all sides): -3
For the many, many…… meetings it required (and money it cost the tax payers): -1
This could still drag on for month, and months, and months, and m........ -1.25

Total:
What's the total? The quantitative conclusion?
I don't know. Who cares? It's like the point system in "Whose line is it anyway"? We don't really care. Its about the road and the journey 'out there.'
Let's instead save the energy and spend it on making the beautiful Korean peninsula a peaceful place with only one flag!

NK Agrees to Seize Nuclear Programs

AP

WOW. Christopher Hill and Co. did it!!!

Now we just need to unify the countries...

Hill's Monday Au Revoir- AP

AP

AP reports that Christopher Hill, the head US Envoy at the 6-party talks, will leave Beijing on Monday afternoon after 7 days of negotiations. Whether he will leave the talks with an empty briefcase or whether his sooner-than-expected departure it will pressure all parties to sign an agreement, is yet unknown.

Pressure seems to be mounting on the US to allow the North Korean regime to establish Light Water Reactors, as originally promised in the 1994 Agreed Framework. It will be exciting to see whether this issue is a 'showstopper' or an issue to be resolved before the new Monday deadline. These LWR could potentially be used to construct nuclear weapsons material, but it is very difficult and probably the best solution for a country starved of energy.

The US should let the North Korean regime keep a low degree of Nuclear Power technology, in order to gain some leeway with the communist regime. This could in the long-term allow for better engagement and communication between the North Korea and the other 6 party members -- the best way to start a reform process.

My other suggestion is to let Denmark and Holland build windmill farms in North Korea. That's would be a sight and a half.

The 6-Party Talks Carry On...

Extending the deadline for the adoption of a Chinese draft document stating DPRK's right to utilize nuclear energy technology, the negotiations in this 2nd part of the 4th round is continuing.

Is there still hope - will the US find an alternative for the North's demand to establish a Light Water Reactor, or will the North give up on this?
Is there still hope?

Latest BBC News Article

Perhaps there's a chance for the US to commit as the eye of the US population is looking the other way, focusing on Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, and college football.

What do you think?

The 6-Party Talks. Stalled Again???? Go Figure.

After having just reconvened after a long break in the 4th round of the super-duper 6-party talks, an impasse between North Korea and the US has left the talks stuck in the mud...once again. Similar to the situation before the long 'break', the North Koreans cannot agree with the US on the issue of having a peaceful nuclear energy program in the form of a Light Water Reactor (LWE) power plant.

The situation was predictable as most countries agreed with North Korea's request for a nuclear power program to fill its domestic needs rather than being dependant on its neighbors. But I think the problem goes deeper. North Korea is at heart still at war. The US and Japan are still seen as active enemies that North Korea fears will attack any time. For North Korea to suddenly accept to be dependent on its enemy (or their allies, such as South Korea) to supply them with crucial resources, is silly. There are many steps that need to be fulfilled first. So in other words this calls for a comprehensive plan, or a Grand Bargain (thank to Mr. O'Hanlon over at Brookings) to solve most of these problems at once, to prevent some problems standing in the way of each other.

A Grand Bargin should include not only the dismantling of the North's nuclear program, but also signing a comprehensive peace treaty, agreeing to de-militarizing the peninsula, re-establishing diplomatic relations, etc. etc. Before this happens, it seems very unlikely that the North will engage in an economic and inter-dependence role with its enemies, basically due to the threat it perceives in the other 6-party members, and the US' lack of a comprehensive strategy to finally come to terms and solve the North Korean dilemma.

Comments, please.

Asian Culture and Holidays: Chusok

East Asia Blog should not only be a forum for political and economic issues. Soft issues, such as culture, art, and entertainment (I love Korean movies) are just as important and interesting.

Since the Korean Thanksgiving, Chusok (추석), is just around the corner, now is an appropriate time to discuss the meaning of this important holiday. The following website gives you a good explaination of the ways in which Koreans celebrate their harvest festival:

Chusok the Korean Thanksgiving, by Eun Mee Kim

Korean Thanksgiving Day: by Yoo Min

Chusok: by Bet Key Wong

In a nutshell, Korea turns into one big traffic jam during this holidays, as people visit family members and graves of their ancestors, which they worship.

My own experiences from Chusok is that you get time off from work, and that's always fun.

What are your experiences?
Please tell share your stories, both from a Korean and Expat perspective.

Common East Asian Currency?

Korea Times writes about the proposal of an East Asian Currency

This would include Japan, South Korea and China. Now, why in the world would they want to do that? Aren't there enough grieviences between these countries to fill an oil tanker? The relationship between these countries is enough in itself to make the efford effortless. But then again, there are some positive aspects about it as well. What if, in the wake of the 6-party talks, this could kick-off an even closer cooperation between the countries to lubricate the rusty tensions in Northeast Asia. Here are some of the pros and cons. I am far from a currency expert, so your comments are highly appreciated (I will correct anything that is flatout wrong):

PROS
1. Quoting Korea Times "...under the current U.S. dollar-dominated currency system, Asian countries will not be able to maintain regional financial stability and sustain high economic growth". A common currency would enable East Asia to better shied itself from various shocks.
2. Peace, peace, peace. Common currencies have often been a major part of arguments speaking for increased inter-dependence with peaceful purposes.
3. Prevent another East Asian Economic Crisis, which could hurt China in the future.

CONS
1. The East Asian economies depend too much on exports to the US and lack a suitable financial system to deal with the current account surplus, Choi Gong-pil a Korean economist was quoted in the Korea Times.
2. China and Japan would never be able to build a working relationship conducive to such developments.
3. The US hubs-and-spokes system in East Asia would not allow for an enhancement in a regional structure such as a common currency. It would also not fit into the security parameters of East Asia, particularly with the Taiwan issue.

DDDDOOONNNNGGG [sound of bell]: End of Round 4!

In retrospect, the 4th round of the six-party talks have produced absolutely nothing. Diplomatic kow-towing and tug-of-wars throughout the 13 days of negotiations has not managed to get the 747 Jumbo of an issue out of the mud and towards any tangible accomplishments or goals. Asia East Blog will take a look at a few of the main issues:

-A Nuclear-Free Korean Peninsula
North Korea has generally agreed to such an utopia, but has pushed for the establishment of a civilian nuclear energy facility, which has dominated the headlines. Please see below.

-Light Water Reactors (LWR)
North Korea was hell-bent on their right to maintain such reactors, which terminally became the stumbling block (or deal breaker) for this round of talks. Utilizing LWR for "peaceful" energy purposes in North Korea is not acceptable by Hill and his American delegation, who fear the North Koreans may use such facilities to generate weapons-grade plutonium (despite the much greater difficulty than at other types of nuclear plants). None of the 5 other parties are willing to issue a guarantee for the North Koreans to establish a LWR, as originally promised in the Agreed Framework and was to be constructed by the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO). In a strong statement Hill said, "We decided it was time to end it and go to recess, with the idea that they can go back and think about what they've been told, which is, they're not going to get a light-water reactor."

-Peace Treaty
In what seems to make a whole lotta sense, the North Koreans have iterated their desire for a peace pact with the US. The two countries have officially been at war since the end of the Korean War in 1953, which ended with a cease-fire agreement. North Korean authorities stated, "Replacing the armistice agreement with a peace treaty is an urgent issue, which North Korea and the United States should immediately address to resolve the nuclear problem in a fair manner." This would seem to be a great first step--but we're still faraway.

-Future Talks (and actions, if any)
That's right. After a 3-week recess the 'big boys' including nice-guy Mr. Hill will experience another deja-vu in Beijing where expectations are as low as President Bush's approval rating. The Chinese delegate, Wu Dawai, is optimistic, however, which is understandable as China is poised to be the biggest gainer of the talks. Where why: if the issue is resolved: China is will appear as a good-will figure with gained diplomatic respect; if the talks fail: China will still have established an image as a worthy negotiating organizer through the 6-party talks being hosted in Beijing. The Washington Post argues that China has invested the most in the 4 meetings and has much to lose--that may be so, but in the long-run it will still be the US and North Korea that will be staring actors (or actresses) fated to disappoint, in this seemingly never-ending story.

-In summary
Christopher Hills is widely characterized as a flexible and skilled negotiator, as seen in his efforts in the 1998-99 Kosovo crisis. In the 6-party talks he was not given the amount of elbow space needed to successfully solve the nuclear issue. In a word, the US has not put enough serious bargaining power into this game. While keeping pretty much the same line drawn in the sand, the US is just as reluctant to give into any concessions. It may very well be that North Korea needs another Gorba before we can see any light at the end of the tunnel, but while that is not very likely, I do not think we can keep pressuring North Korea is this boxing fight between Mark Tyson and the mosquito equivalent DRPK (note, mosquitoes can carry all sorts of deadly diseases). At the end of the day, the United States IS the big boy in the playground, which has to make the choices that have an impact. You can say as much as you want about the atrocities of the North Korean politburo, but the only effort that will have a lasting effect (unless you're naïve enough to believe in the collapse of North Korea) is a 'Grand Bargain' between the US and North Korea. Please consult with Mr. Michael O'Hanlon over at Brookings for his ideas in this regard and how they seem the most credible, as opposed to the piece-meal path of the George W. Bush.

Asia Top 3

After a long absence on Holiday, Cookiesap is back with an update on some of the big issues in East Asia. I call it my top 3 list. Feel free to comment as you please:

3) Typhoon Matsa is about to hit Zhejiang and Shanghai. What can we do? RUN!

2) Russia: Another submarine is stuck to the ocean floor. Bottomline: Russia's military is rapidly deteriorating, and it is a horrible foreboding for the dangers of its much more dangerous nuclear stockpile.

1) North Korea: Impasse in the 6-party talks. On their 11th day of talks, the US negotiator Chris Hill is getting no-where. Why? Because the US is investing too little in this extremely urgent matter. Bush is simply over-stretched.

Rice calls for change in Burma (but driving with one hand)

During Secretary Rice's meeting with Thai PM Thaksin in Phuket, the Burma issue once again made it to the surface. The pressure on Thailand is founded in the fact that the South East Asian country has connections with Burma; the US does not.

As usual, Aung San Suu Kyi's name was used to speak for the democratic movement in the country. Is this, however, the right approach and is the US thoroughly interested in making Burma a "freer country"(ie. with 'good folks', not 'evil-doers')? There are few natural resources in the country, which the US cannot live without; the SPDC junta-led country is not a direct threat in the "war on terror"; and there's always the China connection.

The US is trying to put leverage on China as the Middle Kingdom poses a huge economic threat to many a western country. Compounded with the North Korean issue and other trade disputes between the US/EU and China; for the US to confront China in the Burma issue is probably more than the foreign policy hot-air balloon can carry. Instead, the Burma issue has becomes one of the ballast bags--long ago thrown overboard--perhaps with the exception of Bono's admiration for 'The Lady. Yes, the US cares about the human rights abuses in the country, but there's not really energy/resources in the current administration to do anything about it. Who can?

Rice is definitely not showing any more effort in solving the Burma issue, than someone driving a vehicle with one hand, while the radio is on and the other hand is sticking out the window sensing the wind to see which way it is blowing. You don't need a vane, Dr. Rice!!

Let Engagement Prevail: North Korea Agrees to Return to 6-party Talks

Is this good news or what? North Korea has agreed to participate in a new round of 6-party talks. The meeting is due to take place on July 25.

Although the 6-party talks are insufficient to solve the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula, it is a step in the right direction. One thing, however, that is certain. Is that engagement and positive approaches to North Korea will prevail. Major scholars such as Oberdorfer, O'Hanlon and Harrison all argue that sincere and resolute engagement with the Hermit Kingdom is a prerequisite to establishing a nuclear free Korean Peninsula---and perhaps towards full demilitarization.

Remember, it was engagement with the USSR that 'broke the camels' back during the cold war---by the most unlikely of all, Ronald Reagan. Would Bush be able to take a similar jump?

For more information on North Korea: http://nkzone.typepad.com/nkzone/2004/02/oberdorfer_.html
An interesting blog on North Korea.

Philippines...what is going on?

What's going on in the Philippines?

For weeks, a growing anti-Arroyo movement has been gaining foothold, but the first lady has still kept her grip on the military, the government, the courts and the church...so far. On July 12, however, the Catholic church of the Philippines will convene to create an announcement that states whether they are in support or opposition of the president. This will either "make or break" Arroyo, as the church was crucial in the downfall of Estrada.

Meanwhile the protests carry on. Police has been breaking up more riots, but what will now happen? The Philippines, despite all its turmoil, has always found a way out, in my opinion.

Although previous leaders in the Philippines were 'kicked our' (Marcos and Estrada), things still need to get a lot worse, before we can expect anything radical to happen. That's how I assess the situation.
What is your take on it?
Any locals who would like to chip in?

Our sympathies....

Our thoughts, feelings, and sympathies are with the casualties of today's bombings in London.

May they rest in peace.

The Anti-Japanese Protests - 2 months Later

It has now been approximately two months since the anti-Japanese protests took the world media world by (near) surprise and raised the eyebrows of many a Japanese citizen. What has happened in the interim?

First of all, there was the incident, where China's Vice-Premier bailed out on visiting Japan's PM Koizumi. Quite an embarrassment - but noteworthy in the "who bows for who" contest between the old rivals. Elsewhere, new events in China have mainly been surrounding various protests within the 'great firewall' between officials and regular Jane and Johns (or should I say Wangs and Lius). Perhaps the recent turmoil, as we particularly saw in Anhui Province last week, may call for another round of anti-Japanese protest to 'unify' once again. Isn't that what it is for? To have a common purpose that can bring poor and rich alike (and their chasm of a difference) connected and bridged together. China sure is having many balls in the air: authoritarianism, capitalism, nationalism, revisionism, and many others. What happens if one of these falls to the ground?

Do you think there will be more anti-Japan protests in the near future?