Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Hong Kong Protests: Possible End Games

It's the 5th night and there are still thousands of people camped out.... As the "Occupy Central" protests in Hong Kong carry on, I'm speculating about the possible short- and long-run outcomes.

One thing is clear: China will not accept any loosening of their grip on Hong Kong as it could trigger similar movements in other parts of China. Let's imagine that the protests trigger political reforms in Hong Kong and a step closer to full democracy....... No , highly unlikely.

Another possible outcome is the opposite end-game whereby China will assert a tighter grip on the political scene in the entrepĂ´t. It could be with more Chinese-mainland representatives in HK or perhaps police and/or armed forces. But provided that Beijing recently attempted - but obviously failed - to reform the political scene with the new election rules (from a panel decision to having Beijing  pre-approve all candidates), this would not be consistent, and I cannot see the benefits of  a flip-flopping Beijing.

So my guess is that the most possible solution for Beijing is to maintain the status quo in the long run but find a quick-fix to get the city back up and running. Such a quick fix could be either by removing the Chief Executive  Mr CYLeung , or perhaps make confusing promises that could defuse the situation.

The chants if the protesters this evening are at lease calling for Mr Leung to resign and might be the outcome..... For now.......

At least they haven't occupied the Chek Lap Kok airport yet.

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